Assessing the effectiveness of Nigeria's Renewable Energy Master Plan (REMP) on achieving its solar PV deployment targets

Abstract

Persistent gaps between policy targets and outcomes of implementation of renewable energy policies in developing countries are often a limiting factor. The Renewable Energy Master Plan (REMP) has been developed to meet Nigeria's PV deployment targets by 2025, and this research evaluate the plan in achieving this goal. Secondary data were used in a mixed-methods policy analysis using an adapted Dunn policy cycle to compare planned capacity targets with actual deployment and to find the drivers of the deviations observed. Results showed a gap in implementation, with only 212 MW of solar PV installed by the end of 2023, (42.4% of the 500 MW target). Financial, institutional, regulatory, and infrastructural constraints are not standalone obstacles but part of an interlocking system. Limited implementation is adapted to these constraints, with off-grid deployment taking precedence over utility-scale deployment despite policy's focus on utility-scale deployment. The research contributes three concepts: policy–implementation decoupling, infrastructure-constrained transition and instrument-induced path dependency. These can be used to understand how policy ambition and system capacity interact to affect results. The results point to the importance of designing policies that build capacity and have targets linked to infrastructure, a dual approach to policy and subsidiarity.