Universitas Islam Internasional Indonesia Repository

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ThesisControlled Access
The role of foreign direct investment on GDP growth in SAARC countries
Gardesh, Awesta; Rima Prama Artha (Universitas Islam Internasional Indonesia, 2025-08-21)
This study seeks to show what role foreign direct investment has played in the economic growth of SAARC member countries during the period 2000-2023. The importance of this issue stems from the fact that the inflow of foreign capital usually provides the basis for increased production, job creation, and infrastructure development. For this reason, this study attempts to examine the relationship between foreign capital flows and GDP in detail. For this purpose, data from eight SAARC member countries have been collected and analyzed in the form of panel data. In the model used, GDP is the dependent variable and foreign investment is the main independent variable. In addition, factors such as population growth, human development index, merchandise trade volume, and gross capital formation have also been considered as control variables. Statistical analysis was performed using panel data regression, and tests such as Breusch-Pagan LM and Hausman were used to select the appropriate model. The findings of this study show that after the Great Asian Crisis, foreign direct investment has not had the same impact on GDP growth in all countries. In countries with stronger infrastructure and more targeted policies, this impact has been more significant; while in countries with weak institutions and political instability, the effect of foreign investment on economic growth is not very noticeable. In addition, variables such as population growth, human development index, volume of merchandise trade, and gross capital formation also play a decisive role in the process of economic growth and should be considered when assessing the effectiveness of foreign investment. The recommendations presented in light of this study are to improve the quality of institutions and infrastructure and, at the same time, improve regional cooperation between countries, such as developing joint policies to attract foreign investment and facilitating complex investment processes
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Macroeconomic factors affecting economic growth in Afghanistan from 2004 to 2023 : a study case of the natural resources and infrastructure sectors
Ahmadi, Abdul Zahoor; Indra Gunawan (Universitas Islam Internasional Indonesia, 2025-08-22)
The weak economy in Afghanistan offers a special dimension to consider how growth in conflict-stricken and aid-reliant states is driven. This thesis explores the correlation amid the products of foreign direct investment (FDI), inflation, unemployment, the Human Development Index (HDI) and monetary increase estimated in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) within a given period of 2004 to 2023. Through the use of Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression, supplemented by diagnostics and variance decomposition, this study offers empirical evidence on the short and long-term factors of growth in a context that witnessed post-conflict reconstruction, strong international dependency, and recent domestic resource mobilization. The results indicate that, in terms of being consistent and significant, HDI can drive GDP growth better, and this underlines the centrality of human capital, which is possessed by people in the form of education, health, and income in producing the sustainable development. Conversely, the influence of FDI on growth does not make any substantial direct influence, which symbolizes the institutional weaknesses, insecurity and low absorptive capacities in Afghanistan. Unemployment rates clearly turn out to be a major drag on performance, as per the Okun Law and, although not always important in the regression model, in decomposition nearly 42 percent of the variance of GDP could be explained by inflationary rates clearly indicating its destabilizing nature in long run growth volatility scoring. These findings fit into the overall body of literature on growth in fragile economies by supporting the idea of human development theory and endogenous growth models, although they also demonstrate the ineffectiveness of external inflows of capital in an economy that lacks institutional reform. The policy implications include giving more emphasis on investments on human development, macroeconomic stability by controlling the inflation, reforming the labor force to create jobs and integrating FDI into the domestic value chain as opposed to extractive projects. The key sectors that are found to improve resilience and aid dependencies include strategic infrastructure development, diversification into laborintensive sectors and value-added, and enhanced governance mechanisms. The limitation of the present study includes data constraint, sample size, and methodology aspects of OLS that limit causal inference and leaves out essential variables like security shocks, aid flows, and the quality of governance. These gaps may be addressed by future research through higher frequency or provincial data, advanced econometric methodologies (VAR, VECM, GMM) and integrating quantitative analysis with qualitative case studies of flagship projects, e.g. the TAPI pipeline or CASA-1000. Through its framing, of Afghanistan growth experience in the dual context of fragility and transition, this thesis does not merely provide empirical evidence but also provides a policy relevant framework on which national strategies as well as international assistance to post-conflict economies can be based.
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ThesisControlled Access
The impact of boycott on financial sustainability : a causal machine learning analysis on the performance of Six-FMCG companies in the Indonesian capital market
Adinda Humaira; Rizky Wisnoentoro; Hanafi Sofyan Guciano (Universitas Islam Internasional Indonesia, 2025-07-23)
This study investigates the impact of consumer boycotts on the financial performance of leading companies in Indonesia's fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector, where social and cultural issues play a critical role. Focusing on three boycotted firms; PT Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR.JK), PT Fast Food Indonesia Tbk (FAST.JK), and PT Sarimelati Kencana Tbk (PZZA.JK) and comparing them with three non-boycotted firms; PT Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Tbk (ICBP.JK), PT Mayora Indah Tbk (MYOR.JK), and PT Matahari Putra Prima Tbk (MPPA.JK). This research employs a twostage empirical approach. First, a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) econometric model is applied to estimate the causal impact of boycotts on stock prices by contrasting treated and untreated firms. Although DiD is widely used, it relies on strong assumptions such as linearity and parallel trends, which may not fully capture real-world complexities. To address this limitation, the second stage applies Causal Machine Learning, specifically Causal Forests, to estimate heterogeneous treatment effects and provide a flexible, nonparametric assessment of boycott impacts. The treatment period is defined based on the 2023 Indonesian Ulema Council (MUI) Fatwa advocating a boycott of products associated with Israel, which triggered significant consumer responses. The results show that boycotted firms experienced a statistically significant decline in stock performance, while non-boycotted firms remained stable or demonstrated modest growth. These findings underscore the substantial financial risks linked to consumer activism and highlight the importance of social perception in corporate sustainability. The study contributes to boycott economics literature by integrating econometric and machine learning methods in a developing market context, offering practical implications for corporate risk management, stakeholder engagement, and the necessity of maintaining social responsiveness in sensitive socio-political environments.
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ThesisIndefinitely Restricted