Natural shocks, economic risks, health and social risks impact on food security in Indonesia

Abstract

This study aims to elucidate the evolution of food security in Indonesia from 2017 to 2022 and to ascertain the impact of natural shocks (meteorological, hydrological, geophysical, climatological hazards), economic risks (inflation, GDP per capita, trade, and savings), as well as health risks and social risks (biological hazards) on food security during this period. In order to achieve the aforementioned objectives, this study employs descriptive analysis and panel data regression techniques. It is regrettable that the results demonstrate that only La Niña and El Niño, in addition to trade, exert a considerable influence on food security. As extreme climate phenomena, La Niña and El Niño exert a considerable influence on rainfall and temperature patterns, which in turn impact food production and availability. The results indicate that increased trade can help reduce food insecurity by redirecting surpluses from production areas to less well-off areas. The variables representing disasters, including natural shocks (meteorological, hydrological, geophysical, climatological) as well as health and social risks (biological hazards), do not exert a significant effect. This is due to the fact that the model may be unable to adequately capture the specific conditions of the number of disaster events, which can vary considerably depending on the type of disaster or the region in question. Furthermore, the economic variables of inflation, GDP per capita, and savings have no significant impact, as the model has been unable to adequately capture the fluctuating economic conditions of Indonesia during the data year under study.