An Islamic economics perspective on the determinants of indebtedness as measured by debt-to-GDP ratio : a panel regression analysis of the data from certain OIC and non-OIC member countries

Abstract

This thesis aims to define common causes of indebtedness, differentiate within common causes of indebtedness, assess whether fiscal and monetary policies are on a sustainable path to control debt distress and levels, and lastly, evaluate whether the ethical foundation of Islamic economics and finance provide a better way of handling the phenomenon in terms of fiscal, monetary policies and speculative investments. To accomplish these objectives, data of specified countries are taken from the World Bank, IMF. and Central Banks in terms of Debt-to-GDP ratio as the dependent variable, and FDI (net inflows), Government revenue, Government Expenditure, Export, Stocks traded value (GDP), Interest rate, GDP growth, Inflation, and Import as independent variables from 1990 to 2021, 32 years and 12 cross sections, establishing 384 observations for the study, the method consists pre-estimation tests of endogeneity and heteroskedasticity to validate basic assumptions of Ordinary Least Square regression and main separated estimation of Pooled OLS group wise for OIC, non-OIC countries with the adjustments by Heteroskedasticity Linear Regression with maximum Likelihood option. The study found that all the variables except inflation are significantly impacting Debt-to-GDP ratio regardless of separated estimation, however, the difference is that interest rate and stocks traded have a negative and significant relationship with debt for OIC countries while positive nexus for non-OIC countries, FDI has a positive and significant relation with debt for OIC countries while adversely it decreases debt for non-OIC countries with negative nexus. Export and economic growth have a significant and negative relationship for both types of countries, while imports have a positive relationship with debt. Government revenue and expenditure have a significant and negative relationship with debt for OIC countries while positive nexus for non-OIC countries. This study fills the gap of a comparative group-wise study of the macroeconomic determinants of indebtedness while calibrating initial theories proposed by major economists addressing the relationship among mentioned variables and results imply that governments shall formulate efficient policies to lower interest rates, avoid & decrease speculative investments and unnecessary spendings, and maximize revenues to control the debt levels and ensure the ability to service their debt.