Regional retrenchment and shifts : geopolitical restructurisation in the MENA region post-us withdrawal from Afghanistan (2021-2025)

Abstract

The geopolitical architecture of the MENA region has witnessed far-reaching structural and economic changes since 2021. The vacuum created by the US withdrawal from Afghanistan has elicited scholarly discourses in recent times as to the continued viability of a unipolar power grandstanding in the region. Adopting the first move advantage and resource cumulativity, this thesis demonstrates how and why a great power’s strategic retreat can produce structural realignments and changes and open fresh opportunities for rival actors. Fixated on a qualitative methodology, this thesis uses the interpretive-base analysis of numerous pieces of primary, secondary and tertiary economic data, scholarly sources to analyse and offer causal explanations for the shifts in bilateral and multilateral relationships, economic alignments, and regional security configurations. The study finds that the U.S. withdrawal has created a power vacuum that has accelerated the regional rise of other influential actors such as China, Russia, and Iran. Concurrently, traditional U.S. allies, most notably Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt, have begun recalibrating their foreign policy orientation by diversifying alliances and reducing dependency on American security guarantees and economic frameworks. By bridging realist theoretical insights with empirical regional developments, this thesis contributes to the ongoing scholarly discourse on hegemonic retrenchment, post-intervention geopolitics, and the evolving nature of great power competition in a multipolar world order.