Explaining the rise of a dynastic party in Indonesia : cases of PDIP and Partai Demokrat

Abstract

What causes the emergence of dynastic political parties? Dynasty-led parties are not uncommon in developing democracies such as India, Pakistan, Nepal, Bangladesh, Nicaragua, Costa Rica and El Salvador. However, Indonesia had seen few examples of genuinely dynastic parties until the the transformation of Partai Demokrat in 2020. Against this backdrop, this thesis aims to explore conditions under which political parties opt for dynastic leadership succession. By comparing Partai Demokrat, as a positive case of a dynastic party, and Partai Demokrasi Indonesia Perjuangan (PDIP), as a negative case, this research argues that electoral strategies employed by parties may shape the nature of factional disputes within the organization. In turn, factional disputes influence the likelihood of a hereditary succession within political parties. When factions compete for the party’s top leadership position (i.e. first-tier factional dispute), the possibility of a dynastic succession is minimal. Conversely, when factions compete for anything other than the apex position (i.e. second-tier factional dispute), the possibility of a familial succession becomes more feasible. The evidence for this argument is mixed: the Partai Demokrat case supports the propose mechanism, while the PDIP case presents a more complex picture that appear to challenge the framework. In conclusion, the model developed in this study must undergo further refinement to account for the unique dynamics within PDIP.