Explaining divergent mineral ownership policy strategies under energy transition pressure : a comparative study of Namibia and Zimbabwe (2015 -2025)

Abstract

This study explores why Namibia and Zimbabwe exhibited divergent ownership assertiveness dynamics in their critical mineral sectors, despite facing similar energy transition pressures and shared orientations toward resource nationalism. While conventional explanations associate resource nationalism assertiveness with narrow coalition dependence, this study demonstrates the opposite: where the regime-maintenance coalition is narrow, governments produce a selectively retreating ownership assertiveness dynamic because political survival imperatives compel policy adjustment toward protecting coalition finance. Using a most-similar systems design and process tracing, this study argues that this variation stems from different coalition structures that determine political survival in each state. The findings of the study indicate that the ruling SWAPO party in Namibia faces intense public pressure over ownership regulation; this pressure translates into electoral costs, forcing the government to move towards an escalating ownership assertiveness dynamic. Conversely, in Zimbabwe, where survival depends on narrow regime-maintenance coalitions, intra-coalition succession tensions generate coalition defection vulnerability (CDV), resulting in policy adjustments toward a selectively retreating assertiveness to protect the financial interests of key coalition actors. The study contributes to both RN and critical mineral governance literature.