Sacrificial deterrence : the military logic of the Islamic Republic of Iran

Abstract

Since the Islamic revolution of 1979, Iranian political and military leaders have consistently articulated Shahadat as a core element of Iranian deterrence posture. They have explicitly stated it as a strategic logic that the materialistic west cannot comprehend. This thesis examines the articulation as a theoretical puzzle rather than symbolic rhetoric. Classical deterrence theory conceptualises state’s deterrence posture as pre-existing, only explaining how it is communicated and what strategic outcomes it generates but not how it emerged in the first place. Strategic culture literature, in contrast, conceptualises ideational elements as a stable underlying condition that influences strategic behaviour, but falls short of providing a comprehensive account of how the ideational elements become the key operative element of state’s strategic posture. This thesis addresses the gaps of both traditions through development of a configurational framework ‘sacrificial deterrence’. In this framework, the martyrdom (shahadat) notion of the Karbala Paradigm is institutionalised, ritually reproduced and strategically operationalised. These three elements are overlapping and their relative prominence changes according to historical conditions, rather than proceeding as a linear sequential chain. This thesis utilises interpretive process tracing, which assess empirical evidence through triangulation and corroboration across organisational, commemorative and strategic markers rather than hypothesis testing in a positivist sense, across three historical phases: institutionalisation (1979-1988), ritualisation (1989-2003) and strategic operationalisation (2003-2026). It utilises Iranian doctrinal, ideological training, commemorative data sources, alongside adversarial assessment sources to analyse how this framework has been established and sustained. Additionally, the wars of 2025 and 2026 are treated as plausibility for the framework in face of acute strategic duress. This thesis does not claim that all the Iranian strategic behaviours are prompted by religious rhetorics only, neither claiming the success of martyrdom-based deterrence, nor downplaying the significance of material capabilities. It argues that the existing scholarship cannot explain the formative and reproductive aspects of Iranian deterrence, and that sacrificial deterrence clarifies what those explanations left unaddressed. Therefore, this thesis expands rather than substitutes existing explanations.