Nickel mining reduced forest cover in Indonesia but had mixed outcomes for well-being

Abstract

Soaring demand for nickel to support the low-carbon transition is driving extensive mining in mineral-rich countries, but the environmental and social impacts of nickel mining remain underexplored. Here, we use a counterfactual approach to examine nickel-mining outcomes on forests and the well-being of nearby communities in Sulawesi, Indonesia—a region renowned for its biodiverse tropical forests and now a global center of nickel production. By examining changes across 7,721 villages between 2011 and 2018, we show that deforestation in nickel-mining villages nearly doubled. During the early stages of mining, environmental wellbeing, living standards, and education outcomes declined, but improvements were observed in health, infrastructure, and social relations. Environmental well-being continued to substantially deteriorate in the later stages of mining production, especially in villages with already high poverty. These findings highlight the environmental and social consequences of nickel mining, underscoring the need for greater accountability of local outcomes if the sector is to support a just and sustainable low-carbon transition.