Browsing by Author "Jonas, Ajibu"

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    Analyzing the determinants of trade balance : an empirical investigation of Indonesia's economic dynamics
    (2024-05) Nyange, Asia Khamis; Jonas, Ajibu
    The study investigates the determinants of Indonesia's trade balance focusing on five key factors: money supply, foreign direct investment, exchange rate, carbon dioxide emissions, and government expenditure. Utilizing secondary time-series data from 1990 to 2022 and employing vector error correction model analysis, the research reveals significant insights. In the short term, only the money supply notably influences trade balances, while the other factors show no significant impact. However, in the long term, foreign direct investment, exchange rate, carbon dioxide emissions, and government expenditure positively affect the trade balance, with the money supply displaying an insignificant impact. The study's conclusions offer policy suggestions to address these findings. These suggestions include putting policies in place to lower carbon emissions and encourage sustainable growth, making sure government funding for sustainable development initiatives is used effectively, luring foreign direct investment, keeping exchange rates stable, and being cautious when controlling the money supply to preserve price stability. The objective of these recommendations is to improve Indonesia's trade balance sustainability. However, the analysis admits its limitations in not accounting for all macroeconomic factors, such as GDP, interest rates, and industrial production, that affect trade balance. Notwithstanding these drawbacks, the study provides insightful information to help policymakers develop plans for enhancing the dynamics of Indonesia's trade balance.
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    The nexus between government spending and economic growth in Saudi Arabia
    (ZAIN Publications, 2024-02) Jonas, Ajibu
    This paper analyses the impact of government spending on economic growth in Saudi Arabia. A five variable of the Vector Error Correction model (VECM) is used to analyze the relationship between government spending, import, population, exchange rate, and economic growth (GDP). Data was obtained from the World Bank website from 1970 to 2022. Two of our variables were stationary at level alpha 5%, while the other three variables were not stationary at level alpha 5%. This makes us test them in the first difference where all the variables were stationary at alpha 5%. We also tested our lag length criteria, and we found out that the (*) were many in lag three (3). Furthermore, the results from the impulse response, variance decomposition, and five-year forecasting indicate that in the short run, government spending and imports have improved Saudi Arabia's economic growth. The results also indicate that there was no four-way Granger causality among the variables but just two-way. Our results for cointegration also indicate there was one cointegration result, which resulted in us using the VECM. The forecasting results indicate that the country's GDP also tends to decrease by one percent from 2023-205, and after that, it returns to its shock by increasing again by one percent from 2006 to 2008. (9% to 10%).