Browsing by Author "Nyange, Asia Khamis"

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    Analyzing the determinants of trade balance : an empirical investigation of Indonesia's economic dynamics
    (2024-05) Nyange, Asia Khamis; Jonas, Ajibu
    The study investigates the determinants of Indonesia's trade balance focusing on five key factors: money supply, foreign direct investment, exchange rate, carbon dioxide emissions, and government expenditure. Utilizing secondary time-series data from 1990 to 2022 and employing vector error correction model analysis, the research reveals significant insights. In the short term, only the money supply notably influences trade balances, while the other factors show no significant impact. However, in the long term, foreign direct investment, exchange rate, carbon dioxide emissions, and government expenditure positively affect the trade balance, with the money supply displaying an insignificant impact. The study's conclusions offer policy suggestions to address these findings. These suggestions include putting policies in place to lower carbon emissions and encourage sustainable growth, making sure government funding for sustainable development initiatives is used effectively, luring foreign direct investment, keeping exchange rates stable, and being cautious when controlling the money supply to preserve price stability. The objective of these recommendations is to improve Indonesia's trade balance sustainability. However, the analysis admits its limitations in not accounting for all macroeconomic factors, such as GDP, interest rates, and industrial production, that affect trade balance. Notwithstanding these drawbacks, the study provides insightful information to help policymakers develop plans for enhancing the dynamics of Indonesia's trade balance.
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    Determinants of clove production in Zanzibar : evidence from VECM model
    (Universitas Islam Internasional Indonesia, 2025-08-01) Nyange, Asia Khamis; Rininta Nurrachmi
    Cloves are not only a treasured cash crop in Zanzibar; they are an economic life-preserver, keeping export incomes and rural prosperity in place. The production of cloves, once a booming part of the export economy of the archipelago, has continued to shrink, raising serious questions about its root causes. In response to this call, this work explores how climatic factors as well as economic factors shape clove production in Zanzibar. Using secondary time series data from 1980 to 2024, sourced from the office of the chief government statistician Zanzibar, FAO and NOOA, this research used EViews software as a tool for data analysis, while R and STATA were used for graphical presentations. In addition, the analytical approach used descriptive statistics, as well as a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to reflect any immediate and long-term impacts. In the short-term analysis, result shows that Zanzibar clove production is primarily influenced by temperature (lag 1), producer price (lag 1), Precipitation (lag 2) and Ocean Nino Index (lag 1). However, several factors such as Producer Price (lag two), Temperature (lag two), Precipitation (lag two), Ocean Nino Index (lag two), Exchange Rate (lag one and two) and Clove export (lag one and lag two) do not have a statistically significant impact. Moreover, in the long run analysis, the study finds that Zanzibar’s clove production is significantly determined by most of the factors included in the model which are temperature, Ocean Nino Index, Exchange Rate and clove export. In contrast, the study finds that precipitation and producer price do not have a significant impact on clove production in long run. Overall, the study concludes that clove production in Zanzibar main determined by temperature, Ocean Nino Index, producer price, Exchange Rate, clove export and precipitation. Based on these findings, this paper proposes a climate adaptation plan on clove sector in Zanzibar. These are the establishment of drought tolerant cloves varieties, reinforced agro-extension programs, integrated agroforestry with the use of shade and nitrogen fixing trees like Gliricidia sepium and Albizia lebbeck.