An analysis of renewable energy demand : a case study of selected Gulf Cooperation Council countries between 1990-2021

Abstract

This thesis analyzesthe demand for renewable energy in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia from 1990 to 2021. This study investigates the impact of economic, environmental, and market factors, using panel cointegration test and panel data analysis within the renewable energy demand theory framework. These factors include Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Fossil Fuel Consumption (FFC), Carbon Dioxide Emissions (CO2), Oil Prices (OIL), and the Levelized Cost of Renewable Energy (LC) on Renewable Energy Consumption (REC) in these fossil fuel-dependent nations. The study's objective isto analyze both short-term and long-term relationships between these variables. The study reveals a strong positive correlation between Income (GDP) and Renewable Energy Consumption (REC) in the selected (GCC) countries. This suggests that economic growth is a significant driver of renewable energy demand in these nations. Additionally, the findings indicate that fluctuations in Oil Prices (OIL) substantially impact (REC), with higher prices stimulating increased adoption of renewable energy alternatives. Moreover, the Levelized Cost of Renewable Energy (LC) is a critical determinant of (REC), as lower (LC) values correspond to higher adoption rates. These results emphasize the importance of economic factors in the GCC's transition to a renewable energy-based economy. However, the study found no significant relationship between Fossil Fuel Consumption (FFC) and renewable energy demand, indicating that a decrease in fossil fuel usage does not necessarily drive the transition towards renewables. The dominance of fossil fuels in (GCC) countries, supported by availability, infrastructure, and economic advantages, hinders the shift to renewables. Additionally, (CO2) emissions did not affect Renewable Energy Consumption (REC) within the studied period. This is because consumer preferences and national investments need to be stronger to shift the market towards renewables in response to (CO2) emissions changes. In addition, current environmental policies may need to be stronger to significantly impact Renewable Energy Consumption (REC), as the focus has historically been on oil production and revenue. The study recommends policies to help the (GCC) transition to sustainable energy while promoting economic growth. Key strategies include increasing renewable energy investment, reducing reliance on fossil fuels through subsidy reforms and carbon taxes, encouraging renewable technology innovation, and implementing carbon pricing. Furthermore, dynamic pricing mechanisms should adjust renewable energy incentives in response to changes in Oil Prices (OIL), ensuring competitiveness and environmental sustainability.